Membaiknya perekonomian dunia yang ditunjukkan oleh kinerja perdagangan yang terus meningkat, angka inflasi global yang masih relatif rendah, suku bunga internasional yang relatif stabil serta depresiasi dolar AS, mendukung kinerja perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan I-2004. Pada periode laporan, proses pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia masih terus berlangsung ke arah yang diharapkan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengalami kenaikan sesuai dengan perkiraan dengan didukung oleh stabilitas kondisi moneter dan keuangan yang kondusif, yang antara lain ditunjukkan dari nilai tukar rupiah yang relatif stabil, laju inflasi yang rendah, serta uang primer yang masih berada di bawah batas indikatifnya. | Membaiknya perekonomian dunia yang ditunjukkan oleh kinerja perdagangan yang terus meningkat, angka inflasi global yang masih relatif rendah, suku bunga internasional yang relatif stabil serta depresiasi dolar AS, mendukung kinerja perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan I-2004. Pada periode laporan, proses pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia masih terus berlangsung ke arah yang diharapkan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengalami kenaikan sesuai dengan perkiraan dengan didukung oleh stabilitas kondisi moneter dan keuangan yang kondusif, yang antara lain ditunjukkan dari nilai tukar rupiah yang relatif stabil, laju inflasi yang rendah, serta uang primer yang masih berada di bawah batas indikatifnya.

The objective of this paper is to review the impact of crisis and policy measures taken during the crisis, to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures and to analyze the exit strategy in Indonesia. The econometric model was used to evaluate the impact of monetary and fiscal policy to economic output using quarterly data from 1990 - 2010. The result shows that monetary and fiscal policies have significant impact to economic output. In the short run the changes in real GDP is significantly affected by changes in real monetary supply in the previous three quarter and real fiscal expenditures. The lesson learned from this research among other are that cooperation and coordination among the policy makers and the timely responses are very important in tackling the crisis; an effective conventional monetary policy in normal times may become less effective in a crisis thus unconventional monetary policy indeed necessary as timely policy response and the improvement for more timely disbursement of government expenditure is important to increase the effectiveness of this policy to stimulate economic output. Moreover, several Indonesian exit strategy and policies to face future challenges are very important to reach the ultimate objective of sustainable economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. 

Few large banks dominate the Indonesia banking industri. Furthermore, in the past ten years, there were a series of mergers and acquisitions in the banking market. The facts cause implications on competition. In this paper, we examine these issues exploiting an unconsolidated annual financial report of all commercial banks between 2001 and 2009. The Panzar-Rose method is employed to examine the banks behavior in competition. Estimates indicate that banks in all three subsamples, large; medium-sized and small are working in a monopolistically competitive market. The analysis of market concentration supports the conventional view that concentration impairs competition. The study shows that the most competitive market was the medium-sized banks because it was least concentrated. In contrast, the large market was more concentrated thus it was less competitive. The consolidation policies driven by the Central Bank reduced market concentration because mergers and acquisitions were mostly conducted by the mediumsized and small banks. Further the improvement of market share distribution and the increasing capacity of the merging banks enhanced competition in the Indonesia banking industry.  

This paper examines the relationship between bank capital inflows and financial stability. Using a sample of publicly-traded commercial banks in Asia over the 2002-2008 period, our empirical results show that higher banking inflows measured by the share of foreign liabilities in banking reduces systematic risk, but increases bank-specific risk and total risk. A deeper investigation further suggests that an increase in total risk and bank-specific risk is driven by strong institutional development. Specifically, higher foreign liabilities in banking exacerbate bank-specific risk and total risk in countries with greater economic freedom. Hence, the reinforcement of prudential regulations is necessary to overcome bank-specific risk and total risk, particularly when the countries move to a more liberal economic environment.JEL Classification : G21, G28, G38Keywords : Banking Globalization, Economic Freedom, Capital Market Measures of Risk

This paper analyzes the role of financial development on economic output in Indonesia. Using vector autoregressive method, the results confirm the positive impact of financial development on output growth. The interaction between the financial development and the shock either in financial or real sector shows that the financial development has a positive role to dampen the negative impact of the shock on the output growth, while strengthen the positive one. Another variable on the model, which significantly affect the output growth are excess money, term of trade, and the price. Compare to these variables, the marginal effect of financial development on output is smaller.  

The Board of Governor Meeting of Bank Indonesia on October 11, 2011 decided to lower the BI rate by 25 bps to the level of 6.5%. Bank Indonesia will also maintain the stabilization of Rupiah particularly from the impact of global financial market shock. The decision is in line with the inflation expectation of below 5% on current and next year. Furthermore, these policies are meant to anticipate and to mitigate the negative impact of the global economic and financial slowdown on Indonesian economy. Looking ahead, the Board of Governor will continue to evaluate the global economic and financial performance and use the interest rate as well as the mix of monetary and the other micro prudential policies to mitigate the possible slowing down of Indonesian economic performance, especially on achieving the inflation target of 5% + 1% in 2011 and 4.5% + 1% in 2012.

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.  

This paper examine the determinant of bank runs in Indonesia that includes economic fundamental,bank performance, and self-fulfilling prophecy factors for all banks either in full sample periods between years 1990 - 2005 or in banking crisis periods between years 1997 - 1998. The bank runs determinant uses dynamic panel model from Arrelano-Bond. Estimation result shows that self-fulfilling prophecy, bank monetary performance which is rentability and fixed credit ratio and macroeconomic condition which is economic growth, inflation and real exchange rate influence bank runs in Indonesia. Bank runs determinant in banking crisis between year 1997 - 1998 also shows a result that is not really different from bank runs determinant during full sample periods between years 1990 - 2005.

This study conducts econometric analysis CDS Premium relations towards variables usually used as a sovereign rating explanatory. Estimation with data panel econometric found that global risk appetite is the most important influencing variable followed by foreign exchange reserve and yield spread. This item is consistent with the existing empiric literature and shows a high correlation between developing countries economy and world economic cycle.  

The main objective of this study is to measure the persistence of inflation level in akarta. In addition,this study intends to find out the source of inflation persistence and its implication to regional inflation control. The analysis of the regional inflation behavior developed in this paper is explored to commodities level. The empirical result indicates that the level of inflation persistence in Jakarta is relatively high, stemmed from high level of inflation persistence for most of commodities that construct inflation. Using the estimation results of the hybrid NKPC model, it shows that high inflation persistence in Jakarta mainly caused by inflation expectation, which is a combination of forward and backward looking. In this regards, it requires efforts gradually transform the behavior of inflation expectation to be more forward looking.

The Board of Governors Meeting (Rapat Dewan Gubernur/RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 April 2011 has decided to maintain the BI rate by 6.75%. This decision does not change the direction of Bank Indonesia»s monetary policy which tends to be strict in an effort to control the inflationary pressures that are still high, amid the government efforts to reduce inflationary pressure from volatile foods group. The Board of Governors considered that the strengthening of the rupiah so far can reduce these inflationary pressures, particularly from the rising price of international commodities (imported inflation). In addition, to minimize the negative impact of short-term foreign capital flows on monetary stability and financial system, the Board of Governors also has decided to replace the one-month holding period on SBI to six-month holding period, which shall take effect on May 13, 2011. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia assessed that the possibility of the BI rate level adjustment is still open to dampen the incoming inflationary pressures. Bank Indonesia believed that the implementation of monetary and macro-prudential policy mix, supported also by the strengthened coordination of government policy, will be able to maintain the macroeconomic stability and bring inflation to the target, which are 5% ± 1% in 2011 and 4.5% ± 1% in 2012.

This paper analyzes the competition level of banking industry, prior and after the introduction of Indonesian Banking Architecture (API). Using panel data, the result shows the competition of banking decreased after the introduction of API, with large tendency to monopoly or collusive olligopoly. For the bank with niche market such as regional bank and mix bank, the introduction of API did not affect much, while the competition level for foreign bank is the lowest one. Non price variable would be the main determinant on banking competition in the future, including number of branches, wage and credit volume. Keywords: banking competition, market structure, Indonesian Banking Architecture (API).JEL Classification: C23, D40, E44, E58, G21, L11

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44

This paper investigates the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation in Indonesia during 1970-2006. Using partial adjustment Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Engel Granger Error Correction Model, the result shows that legal CBI index inversely affect the inflation, while the turnover of governor is not significant. This result emphasizes Bank Indonesia to strengthen its independency in order to achieve his inflation target. Keywords: Central bank independency, Inflation, Error Correction Model.JEL Classification : C32, E58

This study measured the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Indonesia using the asymmetric preference parameter in linear exponential loss function of the central bank. Asymmetric central bank preference becomes an important issue since many of the results on the time inconsistency problem under symmetric preferences may no longer hold under asymmetric preferences. Using two sub-samples, i.e. before and after the implementation of central bank independence act, the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the output gap were estimated and then proceed to estimate the reduced form of the model. The results showed the existence of an asymmetric preference parameter before the Bank Indonesia independence act, which indicated the presence of a time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This finding implies Bank Indonesia put a negative weight instead of positive weight on the output gap prior to its independency. However, after the implementation of central bank independence, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia has been consistent with symmetric policy preference over price stability and output. Keywords: Time inconsistency, discretionary, monetary policy, asymmetric central bank preference, output gap, inflation bias.JEL Classification : E52, E58

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan I 2013 tumbuh melambat dibandingkan dengan triwulan sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi tercatat sebesar 6,02% (yoy), lebih rendah dari triwulan sebelumnya yang tumbuh sebesar 6,11% (yoy). Sumber perlambatan pertumbuhan berasal dari menurunnya permintaan domestik di tengah membaiknya kinerja ekspor. Perlambatan pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga disebabkan oleh penurunan daya beli masyarakat sebagai akibat peningkatan tekanan inflasi, khususnya makanan. Selain itu, konsumsi pemerintah tumbuh relatif rendah, akibat masih terbatasnya serapan belanja, khususnya belanja barang. Penurunan kinerja juga terjadi pada investasi, khususnya nonbangunan yang dipengaruhi oleh prospek permintaan domestik dan internasional yang terbatas. Penurunan kinerja investasi tersebut juga sejalan dengan menurunnya optimisme pelaku bisnis. Pada investasi nonbangunan, penurunan kinerja terutama pada investasi mesin-mesin, sejalan dengan perlambatan impor barang modal. Sebaliknya, ekspor menunjukkan perbaikan, didukung oleh penguatan ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi global dan kenaikan volume perdagangan dunia. Merespons perlambatan permintaan domestik, kinerja impor mengalami kontraksi. Sumber tekanan pelemahan impor berasal dari impor bahan baku dan barang modal, terutama bahan baku untuk industri dan kendaraan penumpang yang merespons perlambatan industri serta moderasi penjualan kendaraan bermotor.

This paper analyzes the impact of the financial crisis in United States 2008 on Indonesia’s economy, by using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of 5 variables; Dow Jones Industrial Average, exchange rate, composite stock price index (IHSG), production index and trade tax income. The result shows that the US crisis affects the capital market in Indonesia where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plays greater role in explaining the IHSG, compared to Rupiah rate, production index and the trade income tax. In addition, the US crisis affects the volume and the trade income tax in Indonesia. These empirical results bring policy implication for Bappepam-LK as stock market regulator to intervene or to suspend the trade when the volatility exceeds the psychological threshold. It also emphasizes the necessity to diversify the export country destination and to increase the quality and the value added of Indonesian export.Keywords : US Crisis, stock market, trade, SVAR.JEL Classification : G18

The idea for regional monetary integration is grounded by the process of convergence theory within the member states. The paper analyses the possibility of monetary union in ASEAN-5 countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. In terms of volatility, by using nominal deviation indicator assessment, the ASEAN-5 currencies are suggested to peg their national currencies into Yuan since it empirically brings the lowest level of volatility, both during normal and crisis periods. Therefore, Yuan could be proposed as the anchor currency for ASEAN-5 countries. Moreover, valuing the AERU in terms of a weighed average of Yuan is important to determine which countries are considered to be an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The results statistically suggest that all ASEAN-5 countries could be grouped as OCA according to exchange rate stability criterion.Keywords : Optimum Currency Area, AERU, ASEAN-5, Exchange Rate StabilityJEL Classification : D81, E52, F15, F36

Berlimpahnya likuiditas global paska krisis global mengakibatkan membanjirnya aliran modal internasional ke pasar Surat Utang Negara (SUN). Selain bermanfaat, aliran modal asing tersebut,berpotensi menimbul risiko pembalikan aliran modal asing yang dapat menimbulkan ketidakstabilan di pasar keuangan domestik. Paper ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan investasi investor asing, yang mencakup faktor risiko dan return yang berasal dari domestik (pull factor) dan global (push factor). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan push factor sangat berperan mempengaruhi perilaku investor asing di pasar SUN. Bagi investor long-term, perilaku mereka untuk menempatkan dananya di pasar SUN dipengaruhi push factor, tetapi tidak dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh pull factor. Namun bagi investor short-term, baik pull maupun push factor, mempengaruhi keputusan investasi mereka. Selain itu hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa ke depan, prospek investor asing di pasar SUN masih menghadapi tantangan khususnya dari sisi volatilitas yang relatif tinggi sebagai akibat dari sensitifnya investor asing terhadap shock yang sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi di tengah ketidakpastian kondisi pasar keuangan internasional akibat penyelesaian krisis utang di negara maju yang berlarut-larut. Dalam hal ini, Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah perlu terus mempertahankan upaya untuk menjaga dan mengelola return dan risiko investasi di dalam negeri pada level yang lebih kompetitif dan relatif rendah dengan menjaga kekuatan dan ketangguhan perekonomian serta stabilitas keuangan domestik.Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance.JEL Classification : F31, F34, G3

This paper studies the risk taking behavior of Indonesian Banking Industry, especially before and after the establishment and the implementation of Deposit Insurance Corporation (IDIC). Using common set of explanatory variables; we test several empirical models to reveal the conduct of risk management by banks. In the spirit of BASEL II Accord, this paper take closer look at three types of risk behaviors namely credit risk, market or interest rate risk and operational risk, prior and post the establishment of IDIC. We tested the hypotheses using panel data set of banks operational in period of 2000-2009. The dataset consists of 121 banks with semiannual frequency (2420 observations). Our findings show that these variables explain well the three type bank risk exposures. The implementation of IDIC alters the bank behavior albeit in somewhat different way than initially hypothesized. The risk taking responses also varies across bank types. We found that State Owned Enterprise banks (SOE) behave differently relative to the rest types of the bank. Related to size, SOE banks behave more conservative after the implementation of IDIC. On the other hand its response on conditioned capital post the IDIC implementation is the opposite; they became more aggressive. We view the public pressure on this state banks has influenced the way they manage the risk.