Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan IV 2012 masih tumbuh cukup kuat, meskipun melambat dibandingkan dengan triwulan sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan IV 2012 mencapai 6,11%, sehingga untuk keseluruhan tahun 2012 mencapai 6,23%. Masih baiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi ditopang oleh permintaan domestik yang masih cukup kuat. Kinerja konsumsi dan investasi pada triwulan laporan masih tumbuh cukup kuat, meskipun termoderasi dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya. Kinerja ekspor mulai menunjukkan perbaikan sejalan dengan membaiknya perekonomian di beberapa negara mitra dagang utama. Impor mencatat pertumbuhan yang cukup tinggi sejalan dengan masih kuatnya permintaan domestik. Ke depan, untuk keseluruhan tahun 2013, pertumbuhan ekonomi diprakirakan akan mencapai kisaran 6,3%-6,8%.

This study intends to determine whether a shock that occurred in developed countries, the source of funding, was transmitted to Indonesia through international bank lending both directly and indirectly. The methods used estimated the determinants of international bank lending. International bank lending is one form of capital flows that have the potential for rapid reversal and that can lead to a financial crisis as it has in the past. Understanding the determinants of bank lending is important as it can be used to mitigate the impact of a financial crisis in the future. The empirical results showed that international bank lending, either directly or indirectly, contributed to the Indonesian crisis. During the shock, Indonesia saw global banking contract financing. It was also found that credit activities by foreign affiliates in Indonesia saw a contraction in the country of the parent bank during the shock. However, it was found that the bank lending by foreign affiliates, as joint ventureswere more stable compared to the branch offices of a foreign bank. In aggregate, international bank lending is affected by push and pulls factors such as economic growth (in developed countries and Indonesia), risk factors, and liquidity conditions, both in Indonesia and globally. As for micro-banking models, other than the push and pull factors, the bank balance sheet and other portfolio assets also affected bank lending activities to Indonesia.Keywords: Global Financial Shocks, Foreign Affiliates, International Bank Lending, transmission path,dynamic panel.JEL Classification: C33, E51, G15

The forthcoming 2015, ASEAN is being confident to implement ASEAN Free Trade (AFTA). The existence of AFTA is to outstrip trade liberalization due to augment trade volume significantly and transaction easing as well among the members of AFTA, mainly by inducing lower tariffs some certain commodities up to 0%. This paper is conducted in order to examine on what prominent commodity of Indonesia compared to its counterparts namely Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These Indonesia counterparts are selected therefore they were the founding of ASEAN. Furthermore, this paper utilizes a modified Gravity Equation model. This model has an effort to estimate the significance of some parameters of variable from model equation. Thus, it can be detected that what are from these variables from a model equation being as a key determination factor to influence trading transactions. This paper also assesses the adjusted R-squared due to which Indonesia counterparts incur some vantage points as well as beneficial for Indonesia in terms of AFTA. The novelty contribution of this paper is to reveal the dynamics trade spillover between Indonesia some strategic sectors and its counterparts. By doing so, Indonesia is expected to be a dominant player in AFTA 2015 and taking some advantageous from AFTA into Indonesia account.Keywords: AFTA 2015, a modified gravity equation model, analysis of data panelJEL Classification: C33, C51, F15

Sejalan dengan semakin terintegrasinya perekonomian di tengah eraglobalisasi, krisis keuangan yang terjadi pada suatu negara dapat dengan mudah menyebar ke negara-negara lain dan menjadi bencana keuangan global dalam kurun waktu yang singkat. Pada kejadian semacam ini, fundamental ekonomi yang kuat sangat penting untuk mempertahankan suatu negara dari efek krisis yang “menular”. Sebagai bukti, karena fundamental ekonomi yang rapuh dan kurangnya kredibilitas pemerintah, perekonomian Asia Timur dapat diserang dengan mudah oleh krisis pada tahun 1997 begitu kepercayaan pasarmemburuk. Namun demikian, Asia Timurini telah belajar banyak dari kejadian pada tahun 1997 tersebut sehingga dapat membuktikan ketahanannya dalam menghadapi krisis keuangan global yang melanda pada tahun 2008 dengan meningkatkan fundamental ekonominya serta kredibilitas para pembuat kebijakan. Makalah ini dimulai dengan teori tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis keuangan. Selanjutnya, secara empiris menguji sejauh mana krisis keuangan pada tahun 1997 dan 2008 mempengaruhi perekonomian Asia Timur dengan menggunakan data panel ekonometri. Bukti menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun kedua krisis telah memberikan dampak buruk pada perekonomian Asia Timur, gelombang krisis 2008 relatif tidak lebih parah daripada krisis tahun 1997. Akhirnya, penelitian ini juga memberikan penjelasan lebih lanjut tentang bagaimana perekonomian Asia Timur telah berhasil meminimalkan dampak krisis global pada tahun 2008.Kata kunci: Krisis Keuangan Global; Ekonomi Asia Timur, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pasar Finansial, Efek Acak dan TetapJEL Classification: C330, E440, G010

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent.Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24

Perekonomian domestik masih tumbuh cukup baik walaupun mengalami sedikit perlambatan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan III 2012 tumbuh sebesar 6,2%, sedikit lebih rendah dari prakiraan sebelumnya akibat penurunan kinerja sektor eksternal yang masih berlanjut. Meskipun konsumsi dan investasi yang berorientasi permintaan domestik tetap tumbuh tinggi, penurunan ekspor telah berdampak pada penurunan produksi dan investasi yang berorientasi ekspor. Ke depan, pertumbuhan ekonomi diprakirakan akan kembali meningkat, ditopang oleh konsumsi dan investasi domestik yang tetap kuat. Ekspor diprakirakan juga akan mengalami perbaikan sejalan dengan membaiknya perekonomian beberapa negara mitra dagang utama, meskipun masih dibayangi ketidakpastian kondisi perekonomian global. Dengan perkembangan tersebut, ekonomi Indonesia untuk keseluruhan tahun 2012 diprakirakan tumbuh 6,3% dan pada tahun 2013 meningkat menuju kisaran 6,3%-6,7%.

Governance has gone through radical changes over the last twenty five years.Seemingly, it became one of the important strategies, processes, methods and mechanisms in governing countries to achieve economic development goals. The objective of this paper is to observe the local economic governance dynamics in the case of districts/municipalities in Indonesia. First, the dynamics behavior of local governance over time is analyzed by visual inspection of their non-parametric density distribution. More deeply, we use Markov chains to predict a pattern of change in local economic governance toward its steady state. Based on comparison between 2007 and 2011 data delivered by Commission of Regional Autonomy Implementation Watch, we conclude that there is a high level of persistence in the relative position of local governance index, consistent with a low degree of mobility in the index distribution implying the implementation of governance in the districts/municipalities in Indonesia is weak enough. This finding implies that the local economic governance is a key to achieve sustainable regional economic growth in line with fiscal decentralization and regional autonomy.Keywords : Local Economic Governance, Decentralization, Regional Economic Growth, Kernel Densities, Markov ChainsJEL Classification: H70, O43, O56

This paper analyzes the influence of ownership and specific characteristic of banks on the capital structure and the intermediation function of commercial banks in Indonesia. Using multivariate regression on bank level data of 2006-2009, the result shows the ownership structure, profitability, size, and management expense affect the bank capital structure, with a total effect of 50.14%. Towards the bank intermediation, with a total effect of 27.01%, the ownership structure, profitability, bank size, credit risk, expense management and capital structure influence the banks intermediation function.Keywords : Ownership structure, specific characteristic of bank, capital structure and bank intermediation functionJEL Classification: G21, G32

Theory and empirical study about demand for money is the key feature in macroeconomics theory. The study about demand for money in Indonesia has been developing with various techniques. Its result in various analyses can be difficult in understanding behaviour of demand for money in Indonesia. This paper aims to find out the tendency of demand for money in Indonesia by analyzing long run and short run income elasticity and opportunity cost elasticity. We use fixed effects meta-analysis and unweighted average meta-analysis. The result shows that income elasticity and opportunity cost elasticity are consistent with theory of money demand. That result can be used as an empirical foundation to future study about demand for money in Indonesia.Keywords: demand for money, meta analysis, fixed effects.JEL Classification code: E41, E52

A run on a particular bank can lead to a banking crisis if it spreads to other banks (contagious effect). In the case of Indonesia, bank runs have also reoccurred time and again. In 1992, bank runs affected several national banks, subsequently precipitating the liquidation of one bank. Then in 1997/1998, bank runs developed into the worst banking crisis ever witnessed in the banking history of Indonesia. Considering the extent of losses attributable to bank runs and the banking crisis, extensive studies on the early warning indicators of bank runs are urgently required to prevent future bank runs and bankingcrises. This paper aims to comprehensively analyse the early warning indicators of bank runs for all banks in Indonesia, both during the sample period of 1990-2005 as well as during the banking crisis in 1997-1998. The study of early warning indicators of bank runs uses the Markov-Switching model. To calculate the transition probability from a tranquil state to a state of bank run uses the Markov-Switching process through an auto-regressive approach. The change in deposits held at each bank is used as a variable of bank runs. The results of Markov-Switching (MS) show that the MS model is robust as an early warning indicator of bank runs. This is reflected by testing, which was performed on the actual incident of 102 banks, showing that the MS model only produced false signals an estimated 0.69% - 2.08% of the time.Keywords: Bank Runs, Early Warning Indicators, Markov-SwitchingJEL Classification: C22, G21

Di tengah meningkatnya ketidakpastian perekonomian global, ekonomi Indonesia masih mampu tumbuh tinggi mencapai 6,4% (yoy). Sumber utama pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut berasal dari permintaan domestik yaitu konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi yang meningkat.Konsumsi rumah tangga yang masih kuat tersebut sejalan dengan optimisme keyakinan konsumen dan terjaganya daya beli konsumen yang terindikasi dari masih tingginya penjualan eceran. Tetap tingginya konsumsi rumah tangga dan iklim usaha yang kondusif mendorong meningkatnya pertumbuhan investasi. Kondisi ini diperkuat oleh optimisme pelaku usaha. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekspor melambat cukup tajam akibat tekanan perlambatan perekonomian global yang berdampak pada menurunnya daya serap negara mitra dagang utama dan rendahnya harga komoditas. Di sisi lain, laju impor semakin kuat seiring dengan meningkatnya aktivitas investasi, terutama investasi mesin dan perlengkapan serta alat angkut. Ke depan, prospek ekonomi Indonesia keseluruhan 2012 masih tetap kuat pada kisaran 6,3- 6,7%, meskipun berbagai faktor risiko masih tetap perlu diwaspadai.

This paper attempts to provide evidence whether or not the unification of regulatory institutions for different types of financial sector creates challenges for financial stability. From a sample of 91 countries that provide data on the financial unification index and the central bank involvement index, the empirical results reveal that higher financial unification index or the convergence toward a single supervisory institution outside the central bank, in order to control three different sectors (banking, insurance, and securities), is detrimental for financial stability. However, this finding only holds for developed countries, but dissapears for less developed countries. In parallel, the central bank involvement in financial sector supervision has no impact on financial stability in both developed and less developed countries.

The study analyse sigma and beta convergence of provincial government revenues and expenditures in Indonesia (APBD) by using panel data 30 provinces over the period 2000-2012. The variables used in this study consists of real income per capita and the revenues and expenditures variables in the APBD. The study also included a spatial weights matrix to analyse dependency among provinces. Spatial weights matrix used consists of two types of weights, the real income per capita and the geographical distance. Testing for the presence of spatial dependency performed using Moran’s I. The model used in this study are spatial autoregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM). The models are estimated using panel least squares, fixed effects, random effects, as well as both GMM first difference (GMM-DIFF) and system GMM (GMM-SYS). Based on sigma convergence approach, the results of the study showed that during the period of 2000-2012 occurred convergence on total revenue, income, tax, fund balance, total spending, employee spending, and goods spending, but not for the real income per capita. Estimation with beta convergence approach conducted on four variables as each sample (in per capita value), namely: total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimation with beta convergence is done by using additional explanatory variables which include: economic growth, the degree of openness, as well as economic growth. Based on the beta convergence approach, the study results indicate the occurrence of convergence on total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimates also lead to the conclusion that there are spatial dependencies between provinces either use distance and income per capita weight. Keywords: Sigma and Beta convergence, spatial weights, panel data, revenue and expenditure, the provincial budget (APBD)JEL Classification: H7,R1

This paper analyzes the non-performing loan and its determinant. Using the monthly data of Islamic banks during 2010-2012, this paper found that size and efficiency of the banks do not affect the non-performing loan. On the other hand, GDP and inflation negatively affect the non-performing loan, while the liquidity of the bank positively affects the non-performing loan. The liquidity of also does not mediate the relationship between the size of the bank, their efficiency, the GDP and the inflation to the non-performing loan.  

This paper analyzes the asset securitization as a source of financing for small and medium scale enterprise. We use field survey and focus group discussion in Jabodetabek, Bandung, Yogyakarta, Denpasar, Medan, and Banjarmasin, covering 149 samples in total. This paper found the banks generally are in excess liquidity condition, therefore face difficulty on obtaining the minimum of Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). For this reason, those banks are not interested to sell the SME’s loan though they are quite interested on the asset securitization concept. For the banks, the major motive to invest in asset securitization program is a high yield. In addition, they expect this portfolio to increase the LDR. Prior the implementation of this program, this paper underlines the necessity to overcome some obstacles including non-bankable SME’s, liquidity and human resource of the banks, and limited information of the asset securitazion program (EBA-UMKM).    

In this research, the effect of central bank intervention within a heterogeneous expectation exchange rate model is investigated. The results are supporting both chartists and fundamentalist regimes. In the period investigated, chartist dominates in determining the exchange rate. While BI foreign exchange intervention can effectively push the market exchange-rate to its long-run fundamental equilibrium, however, Bank Indonesia’s effort to exert a stabilizing effect of foreign exchange interventions, the result does not show a success.

Redenomination is a simplification of nominal value of currency by reducing digit (zero number) without reducing the real value of the currency. The main objective of this research was to examine whether the economic conditions at the time of redenomination may affect the success of currency redenomination. The methods used were regression analysis on historical data of 30 countries which are involved in redenominating their currencies, economic experiments with t-test, and survey of people’ perspective. Based on regression analysis, inflation will decrease and economic growth will rise higher after redenomination, if previously a country have experienced high economic growth as well. Based on experimental research, when inflation was high, redenomination could increase the selling price. Otherwise, when inflation was low, redenomination could decrease the selling price. Changes in selling price after redenomination was not affected significantly by differences in economic growth conditions. In different economic conditions, redenomination policy did not significantly affect the changes number of transactions and total value of transactions in the market. From the survey results, public did not believe government can control inflation after redenomination. Redenomination also will not affect consumption pattern.    

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan III 2014 menunjukkan bahwa stabilitas makroekonomi dan sistem keuangan tetap terjaga dan mendukung proses penyesuaian ekonomi ke arah yang lebih seimbang. Kondisi ini tercermin dari defisit transaksi berjalan yang menurun, inflasi yang terjaga dan permintaan domestik yang tetap terkelola dengan baik, meskipun pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik masih dalam kecenderungan melambat. Sementara itu, stabilitas sistem keuangan masih solid ditopang oleh ketahanan sistem perbankan dan relatif terjaganya kinerja pasar keuangan. Di sisi lain, sistem pembayaran juga berjalan lancar dalam menopang perekonomian...

This paper calculates and decomposes the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for large and medium scale industry in Indonesia covering the period of 2000-2009. By using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)  method, the result shows there is a shift of the supporting factors on the growth of TFP on manufacturing sector within the 2 (two) sample period. In the period of 2000-2004, efficiency change becomes the main contributor on the growth of TFP. Whereas in the period of 2005-2009, technical change becomes the main supporting factor of TFP,however it goes along with the growth of negative efficiency change or the decline of the company’s catching-up effect ability to adapt with the more advance technology. The grouping of the sample across subsectors, technical change and also efficiency change shows the declining amount of manufacture industry with superior productivity. Furthermore, the number of low and weakening catching-up industry is increasing.  Keywords: Indonesian manufacturing, total factor productivity, technical change, efficiency change, economic scale change, Data Envelopment Analysis JEL Classification: L6, M11

This paper analyzes the liquidity of banks, both precautionary and involuntary liquidity. We apply dynamic panel estimation on individual bank data covering the period of Januari 2002 to November 2011.  The result shows that precautionary liquidity is more determined by the operation of the bank. On the other hand, the involuntary liquidity is more affected by the financial system condition. Related to the size, the  effect of the financial system condition and the macroeconomy is larger for the small banks. Moreover, the monetary policy in the form minimum reserve requirement affects the precautionary liquidity of the small banks; while the central bank rate is less influential to the bank liquidity.  Keywords: Banking, Liquidity, General Method of Moment  JEL classification: G21, G11, C33